Few things are as comforting as that first sip of coffee in the morning—but behind every cup is a complex global market that influences what we all pay. Over the past few months, coffee prices (what the industry calls the “C price”) have been on a rollercoaster. Prices dropped sharply during June and July, only to surge again in August. So what happened—and what does it mean for consumers, cafés, and roasters?
The C Price: Coffee’s Global Benchmark
Before diving into Brazil’s harvest, let’s clarify what the C price means.
- The “C” refers to the Coffee C Futures contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York.
- It is the global benchmark price for Arabica coffee, quoted in U.S. cents per pound.
- While specialty roasters often pay higher premiums for quality, the C price sets the tone for nearly all green coffee buying worldwide.
So when you hear “coffee prices are up,” it usually refers to the C market.
Brazil’s 2025/26 Harvest: A Record Pace
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for roughly one-third of global output. Because of that, what happens in Brazil has an outsized influence on prices.
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June–July (Bearish Pressure)
By late July, Brazil had completed 84% of its harvest, well above the five-year average of 77%. With supply pouring in, traders assumed there would be plenty of coffee, and prices fell. Robusta harvests were nearly finished (96%), while Arabica was 76% complete. -
Favorable Weather
Rainfall in Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region—was above normal, easing drought concerns and further supporting the idea of strong yields.
For a few weeks, the market was awash in supply and optimism, and prices dropped to their lowest levels in months.
Why Prices Rebounded in August
Then, just as quickly, the narrative shifted:
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U.S. Tariffs
In late August, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee. This instantly made Brazilian beans more expensive in U.S. markets, which ripple out globally. -
Speculation and Weather Fears
Traders began factoring in the possibility of frost events, which historically can devastate Brazil’s crop. Even the fear of frost is enough to push speculative money into the market. -
Domestic Price Surge
In Brazil, raw green coffee prices jumped almost 25% in a single month, from 1,750 reais to 2,191 reais per 60-kg bag. On the ICE exchange, arabica futures climbed from around $2.80/lb in late July to nearly $3.80/lb by late August. -
Global Trade Flows Disrupted
With tariffs in place and currency volatility (the Brazilian real vs. U.S. dollar), exporters adjusted contracts, and roasters scrambled to secure supply before prices moved higher.
What This Means for Everyday Coffee Drinkers
For now, the impact hasn’t fully reached retail shelves. Supermarkets and cafés typically buy coffee several months in advance, so there’s a lag between futures market moves and consumer prices. But if the C price stays elevated, here’s what you can expect:
- Higher prices per cup in cafés starting later this year.
- Subscription services like ours eventually adjusting pricing to reflect higher green costs.
- More volatility in the short term, especially as speculation around frost risk continues into Brazil’s winter season.
What Coffee Professionals Should Watch
For roasters, green buyers, and café owners, here are the key takeaways:
- Currency Effects: A strengthening Brazilian real makes coffee more expensive in dollar terms, amplifying price swings.
- Differentials: Even if the C rises, specialty-grade coffees trade with premiums. Watch how differentials widen or narrow in response.
- Robusta vs. Arabica: Vietnam’s larger Robusta harvest is cushioning the market, but Arabica remains the premium driver.
- Logistics: Tariffs and shipping bottlenecks can make landed prices diverge significantly from the futures market.
Looking Ahead: September and Beyond
Markets are always forward-looking. Traders are now watching:
- Will U.S. tariffs remain in place or be challenged?
- Will Brazil’s weather hold through the sensitive flowering period?
- Will speculative money continue to drive futures higher?
One thing is certain: volatility is here to stay. As a coffee lover, this means appreciating not only the cup in your hand but also the vast network of farms, exporters, traders, and roasters who bring it to you.
Our Promise to You
At Kai Coffee, we’re committed to transparency. As prices rise globally, we’ll keep you informed so you understand why your morning cup might cost a little more. Our goal is to continue sourcing the highest quality coffee while being honest about the realities of the market.
This post is the first in a series where we’ll explore global coffee economics and explain how they impact your daily brew. Stay tuned for next month’s update, where we’ll dive into flowering season forecasts and what they could mean for 2026’s crop.